WIKILEAKS AND IT'S IMPACT ON INDIA

Much has been written about Julian Assange and about WikiLeaks these last few weeks. From the morning news till we go to bed it’s the only thing heard on the news channels. Here I have tried to brief about it and what India stands to gain or lose from it.

ABOUT WikiLeaks

WikiLeaks is a non-profit media organization dedicated to bringing important news and information to the public. They provide an innovative, secure and anonymous way for independent sources around the world to leak information to journalists. They publish material of ethical, political and historical significance while keeping the identity of sources anonymous, thus providing a universal way for the revealing of suppressed and censored injustices.
It has been represented in public since January 2007 by Julian Assange and others.

Its website, launched in December 2006 and run by The Sunshine Press claimed a database of more than 1.2 million documents within a year of its launch.  

WikiLeaks states that its "primary interest is in exposing oppressive regimes in Asia, the former Soviet bloc, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, but we also expect to be of assistance to people of all regions who wish to reveal unethical behaviour in their governments and corporations."
WikiLeaks has leaked documents in two instalments.
The first instalment of 77,000 documents related to the American military campaign in Afghanistan.
The second instalment of 400,000 documents related to the American military presence Iraq. According to the Twitter message, its third instalment will contain a much larger number of documents.

HOW DOES IT AFFECT INDIA

Of the above mentioned half a million leaked records, 5,087 refer to India.

It seems to be focusing on India's relations with the US too. It is, therefore, possible that in addition to corruption involving Indian personalities, the documents about India which have reached WikiLeaks also relate to India's policies on Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran.

According to WikiLeaks, US states that "We need to reassess Indian involvement in Afghanistan and our own policies towards India, including the growing military relationship through sizable conventional arms sales, as all of this feeds the Pakistani establishment paranoia and pushes them closer to both Afghan and Kashmir focused terrorist groups while reinforcing doubts about US intentions. Resolving the Kashmir dispute, which lies at the core of Pakistan's support for terrorist groups would dramatically improve the situation. Enhanced US efforts in this regard should be considered."

Among the various events relating to Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran in which India figured during this period, four could be sensitive from India's point of view.

• Firstly, the pressure exerted on the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government by the George Bush administration to send Indian troops to Iraq. By July, 2003, the Vajpayee government had decided to say no to Washington DC, but there were a lot of voices in Delhi in favour of accepting the US request.

• Secondly, the papers captured by the US intelligence after the occupation of Iraq from the Iraqi government departments showing or corroborating the alleged involvement of Indian politicians in contact with the Saddam Hussein government to acquiring preferential quotas for the import of oil from Iraq (the oil for food scandal).

• Thirdly, the pressure exercised by the Bush Administration on the Manmohan Singh Government for voting against Iran in the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna. The government of India succumbed to this pressure as a quid pro quo for the Indo-US civil nuclear co-operation agreement of July, 2005.

• Fourthly, the analysis and assessment made in the State Department and the Pentagon regarding Pakistani allegations of Indian involvement in Baluchistan.

Is it possible that WikiLeaks might have also got hold of diplomatic cables between the US Embassy in New Delhi and Washington DC on Indian political leaders, bureaucrats and policy-making? Has it also got hold of messages sent by the US Embassy in New Delhi to Washington DC about the escape of Major Rabinder Singh, the mole of the Central Intelligence Agency in the Research & Analysis Wing, to the US in 2004 and about the detection by the Indian counter-intelligence of a US mole in the sensitive National Security Council Secretariat in 2006? The documents to be released by WikiLeaks need to be carefully scrutinised.

NEGETIVES FOR INDIA SO FAR

• The WikiLeaks has painted a disturbing picture for India. It shows India had tortured Kashmir prisoners.  
• It is being said that the next WikiLeaks would expose India as a corrupt nation.
• It may affect India’s relations with other nations particularly with US as it discloses the foreign policies of the nations.

POSITIVES FOR INDIA SO FAR

• The first lot of WikiLeaks documents paints a flattering picture of India as a reliable, trusted and respected power in a world that worries itself sick about neighbouring Pakistan.
• Two cables from the Middle East show India in favourable light in the region. 
• In one, King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa inquires from US interlocutors about the extent of India's involvement in Afghanistan and notes that Bahrain sees India as very positive force in the region. "It's a new era," he says. "They can be of great help." 
• In another document, UAE's crown prince Mohammed Bin Zayed, referred to as MBZ in the cables, supports the US decision to sell F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan arguing that it would not tilt the balance of power, and even if it did, "India's strength as a stable democracy would ensure that it would not ever be in as 'risky' a situation as its neighbour." 

• An Italian foreign policy expert clubs India with France and Britain among powers that could be trusted to have nuclear weapons. 
• A US based company has assessed that there was little to fear with nations such as India, Britain, and France having nuclear weapons." 
• WikiLeaks vindicates India’s charge of ISI involvement in 26/11 terrorist attack. So it can help uncovering major involvement of ISI in other terrorist attacks as well.

 But the generous references to India may just be the tip of what could be a wicked iceberg. Among the 251,287 cables that are with WikiLeaks, 3,038 are from the US embassy in New Delhi. The very fact that top US officials frantically called New Delhi to warn Indian counterparts about the leaks and brief them about the contents suggests that fireworks are in store.

WikiLeaks ABOUT INDIA

• WikiLeaks controversy over Rahul Gandhi’s alleged remarks that Hindu extremism is a bigger threat to India than the LeT. Reacting to this the BJP slammed Rahul Gandhi saying, "He has little understanding of India. He gave leverage to Pak propaganda against India by saying that Hindu extremism is a bigger threat than Muslim militants.
• WikiLeaks has warned that India faces bio-terror threat. US diplomats were concerned that India could be the target of a biological terror attack, with fatal diseases such as anthrax being released into the country before spreading around the world, according to diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks.  The cable focused particularly on the lack of preparedness of Indian authorities for such an attack, assessing Indian government assurances that the country could defend itself against bioterrorism to be "unconvincing".
• The latest WikiLeaks revelations expose the tough talk that took place between the United States and India post 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks.
   

Courtesy: WikiLeaks & http://greatbong.net